On SICHUAN SUCCESS L304

SICHUAN SUCCESS (128 lb) burst onto the Hong Kong racing scene with an emphatic 3.25L victory late last year on Good-to-Yielding ground.  He showed great speed to zip to the front from gate 14, sitting outside the lead.  He then kicked away and won with perhaps a bit in hand.

This first win was certainly impressive, and we can make a direct comparison to a very competitive Class 3 sprint later in the day.  London Chinatown beat Final Answer cozily by a neck with Praising, Winning Edge, and Farm Legend matching engines in the battle for 3rd place.  Sichuan Success ran the first 800m of his race in 46.81s, and closed off in 23.55.  Final Answer, a Class 2 horse, carried a similar weight to reel off similar splits of 46.84 and 23.32.  Ignoring the fact that the track may have been a bit cut up in between and noting the work he did from the wide gate, Sichuan Success rates around 1L behind Final Answer.  But he was first up and only pushed out to the line.

On his next start, which was also on Good-to-Yielding ground and up in Class 3, Sichuan Success (120 lb) sat two back the fence and put in a sustained run to win by 0.75L.  Brett Prebble's PRAISING was three-wide the trip and came to win at the 200m mark, but couldn't quite close the deal.  But the John Size charge looked vulnerable that day.

His splits were 46.99 and 23.17, with Douglas Whyte giving him a few slaps down the shoulder. He looked fully extended.  The winner of the day's Class 2 sprint, El Morro, ran 46.80 and 22.95, while the runner-up Shining Victory ran 46.88 and 22.90.  Sichuan Success would clearly need to improve to fulfill the public's high opinion of him; assuming the track rode similarly, he'd need to find over 2 or 3L to be a chance in a Class 2 race.  And Praising might have beat him with a cushier run...

He disappointed in his subsequent start, and I don't think he necessarily ran that much below form.  The pace of the race was slower than he'd ever encountered before (he ran 47.48 for the first 800m), and I think he just got done for a turn of foot. Perhaps the Good ground that day wasn't ideal, but I doubt it.

I think it's great that Romantic City is in today's race, because that's what Sichuan Success needs on his form last year.  But he definitely needs to improve lengths to beat that legitimate Class 2 horse.

9/26/10 Races -- A Story of Two Class 4s

WINNING EDGE (125 lb) replicated his run at the end of last year, but with the pace to suit and a clear run this time, was able to notch his first win.  The first sign of his ability came when he matched engines with Praising and Farm Legend in his second start.  After a poor run on a wet track, he was faced with gate 14 and an extremely slow run race.  He clocked a final sectional a very impressive 0.3s faster than anything else in the race despite being held up till the 250m mark, and only went down by half a length.  First-up this term he came very wide and looked the winner, but died on his run halfway down the straight.  But with the fitness edge yesterday, he stormed home off a hot pace to win by a neck.  He ran home 0.7s faster than Royal Panache, who admittedly did race very green and was first-up.  Nevertheless, Winning Edge looks very hard to oppose now, even in slow run races because of his brilliant turn of foot.

The two Class 4 1200m races have thrown up some very interesting results.  The first one ended in a battle royale between Darren Beadman and Brett Prebble, with the older jockey's mount CAPTAIN SWEET (125) just nosing out PONDEROSA (126).  They look to be smart horses, but RACING LEGEND (119), QUELLE SURPRISE (123), JUST FANTASTIC (121), and CHAMPAGNE DAYS (122) cannot be discounted.  This is because the second Class 4 1200m, won by ADMIRATION (130) was considerably weaker than the first.

Accounting for the fact that Admiration was held up before winning the second Class 4 sprint, the times suggest that Racing Legend, Quelle Surprise, and Just Fantastic might have all been able to run second had they been in the later race.  Racing Legend in particular closed off very well.  Champagne Days ran a huge race as well, keeping on gamely despite circling the field 4-wide.

LOMBARDI (129) ran fourth in Admiration's race, but it was a great run in defeat.  He was an incredible 4 to 5-wide the trip, but still covered the last 400m as fast as 2nd horse China Win did.  He is still very hard to beat, even over the shorter trip of 1200m.

CARISSMA (132)'s sectionals in his Class 5 race suggest that he will be very competitive even when he goes back up to Class 4.

Note: John Moore hinted that Admiration may eventually stretch out to distances as far as 2000m.

9/18/10 Races

CRISTAL MAGNUM (123 lb) won his Class 4 sprint by a cozy 2L on Saturday, but the time he clocked confirms that he is in the right class. This makes the horses behind him look pretty bad, even though some of them were first up or over the wrong distance.  The 2nd horse FAST INTENTIONS (133) was 3 wide in a very fast-run race, so he did well under the big weight to close off faster than anything else. MAKE IT (130) peaked on his run early to finish 3rd, and will be very interesting over the Happy Valley mile.

BET ON ME (116) put in a good front-running performance to win his Class 3 1200m race. He set only an even tempo but kicked away to win comfortably. The 2nd, 3rd, and 4th horses all need longer distances, so they ran well in that regard. HAPPY GUYS (119) closed off well despite being quite wide at the tail of the field; he clocked the fastest final 400m, and HIGH RETURN (125) indicated he might be back on track.

However, bear in mind that Tony Millard's ELITE FORTUNE (117) went every bit as well as Bet On Me in the second Class 3 sprint of the day. He clocked a very similar time off a very similar pace, on a track that had received a little bit of precipitation.  In this race Elite Fortune, last year notoriously slow out of the gates, was actually up on the pace tracking the leader GOOD LUCK WIN (121), and doing it on the bridle.  He came away to win well from Good Luck Win, who ran a startling good race that would have won a weaker Class 3.

Brett Doyle dropped his whip at the 350m so SHIFACHI TRADITION (128)'s run was even a bit more impressive than it looked.  He has overseas form up to 2000m.

On MANDARIN K372

Ever since he first stepped out on Sha Tin's racecourse, John Size's MANDARIN has received plenty of attention.  Owned by the connections of former champion miler Armada, the 4 year old has had players drooling over his marvelous physique and ability.

Their admiration has been justified with 1.75L and 1.25L victories in Class 3 and 4, both more or less on the bridle, after two good runs over the insufficient distance of 1000m.  But splitting his two victories is a disappointing 3rd placing over 1200m, and he ended last season by folding tamely over 1400m as an even-money favorite, beaten 4L.
Just how smart were his victories?  And are there any excuses for his defeats?

In the first of his wins, Mandarin (125 lb) led and set very slow fractions while the very smart 2nd horse Praising (125) missed the start and settled back in the field.  With the race run to suit, Mandarin won by 1.75L. However, Praising pulled almost 3 lengths off him in the straight, and third-placed Goldmen Y Y over a length.  Jockey Douglas Whyte never got serious on Mandarin, but after his subsequent performances there is now a question mark over just how much he had left in the tank.

In his next race, he ran a close 3rd behind Final Answer and Noble Choice.  In that race, Mandarin (133) slotted in from gate 12 and trailed the leaders, one of which was Noble Choice (130).  The winner Final Answer (132) railed on Mandarin's inside.  The pace was very fast and in the end Final Answer powered through on the rail, covering the final 400m in 23.44, while Noble Choice's 23.98 final split was just enough for him to hold off Mandarin and his 23.63s finish.
This was a disappointing run given that Noble Choice is at best a Class 3 horse and there was barely a  weight pull.  Mandarin had to cross from his wide draw but he got there without much fuss.  A comparison to the same day's extremely competitive Class 3, which featured Perfect Sprint, London Chinatown, and Perfect Gear, suggests that Mandarin's performance was barely good enough to make the first 5 of that race.

John Size stepped him up to 1400m next start, and from another wide draw he won with 120 pounds under little urging.  But he only beat fourth-placed Mascot Fortune (118), who pushed the pace outside him, by 1.5L. Mascot Fortune was in the form of his life, but is still a Class 3 horse.  Also,  the other place-getters were poorly drawn hold-up horses who were both over 5L back with 400m to run.

The Hong Kong Jockey Club recently highlighted on their website that in this race Mandarin ran a better time off a faster pace than the Class 2 horses two races later.  But the first three horses who trailed Mandarin in did as well.  The Class 2 race was very weak.  The winner Sparkling Power was a debuting PP who pulled fiercely, and 2nd placed You Gotta Pay shared the lead from a wide draw, was stepping back from 1600m, was at the end of a long season, and was not showing Class 1 form regardless.  As strange as it is to think that Winning Fellowship and Mascot Fortune could have beaten You Gotta Pay, it is not unusual that they (and horses like Sunrise and Lunar Reflections) could have beaten Union's Star, Jun Qi, or a poorly drawn Quick Touch.

Mandarin finished 8th in his final race an hour and a half after Let Me Handle It scored his emphatic victory.  Mandarin (132) set a fast pace from the outside gate and led by 2L on the turn, but was swarmed shortly after the 200m to fade behind the 3 wide no cover winner Penglai Xianzi (127) and Soaring Dragon (123).  There are again few excuses; the pace set in this run is very similar to the tempo he set in his last race.  Furthermore, All Time High (a borderline Class 3 horse) actually went faster in Let Me Handle It's Class 4 race and only ran 0.12s slower than Mandarin.  This run seems too bad to be true...

Mandarin has a high cruising speed but he does not seem to find much off the bridle.  This makes him look better than he actually may be when he wins; assuming that he did not have much in reserve, his first win marks him down as a Class 3 horse, while his second shows him to be a borderline Class 2 horse.  Both of his losses put him up as a bottom-of-Class 3 horse.  I suspect that he had trouble carrying weight last season, and would not bet that he has improved in that regard this season.  Perhaps they need to ride him quiet when he carries a big weight.

But Mandarin's pedigree does suggest that he should eventually improve over at least a mile, and there was visible improvement when he stepped up to 7f.  But I'd be stunned if he could win first up this Saturday and he no certainty for a place, even with the smaller field.

On UNITED

UNITED has been heavily supported in the betting since he joined John Moore's stable from Andreas Schutz, but his first up performance throws doubt onto whether that support is justified.  In the Class 4 race, he sat outside of pacesetter Lotus Love and kicked on, before being overhauled by Fionn's Dragon close to the wire.  But the time he clocked was quite a few lengths off the sectionals produced by Class 3 runners, so you would need to hope for a significant improvement on the run.  He has actually gained weight since that win, so I would not be confident in his chances and his future.

On LET ME HANDLE IT

Caspar Fownes' LET ME HANDLE IT has been touted as an exciting prospect destined for better races ever since he demolished a Class 4 field by 2.5L in June.  Unfortunately, he has since disappointed twice as the short prize favorite, the first time in Yielding to Soft conditions, and the other when receiving a softer run than the winner Lunar Reflections.

After his win, Fownes specifically said that Let Me Handle It would be a better horse this season, with some mental and physical maturity.  But looking back at his only victory, this will need to be the case if he is to fulfill the lofty predictions many are making.

His performance does not compare at all favorably with Soaring Dragon's unlucky second placing in the Class 3 race.  Let Me Handle It pushed off a a 5 furlong time of 59.53 to come home in 23.21, eased down the last bit.  He also initially ran into the back of a horse early in the straight and therefore didn't start his run until the 350m.  But Soaring Dragon covered the first 5f a touch faster in 59.36s, before unleashing a 23.03s burst to the wire.  And the John Moore galloper did not get the clearest of runs either, which led to his trainer  to lodge an appeal that was eventually overruled.

Caspar was right to stretch Let Me Handle It to a mile in his next starts in Class 3, but that was not enough to lift him over the top of a strong Class 3 miler like Lunar Reflections.

9/5/2010 Races

When I first saw HEALTHY BLUEBERRY (114 lb) romp home in the Class 4 mile race my first thought was that the horses behind him must not be very good. Despite cutting across the field from the outside barrier and leading all of the way, he actually covered the last 400m faster than any runner bar Headsiwin, which lends credence to that theory.  But the time on the clock is shockingly good.  Peter Ho's runner got everything to suit, but put up a stunning time that suggests he should be running in the higher grade.

In the 1400m Class 2, CERISE CHERRY (128 lb) produced a performance good enough to suggest that he will be a serious chance in a Class 1 race.

LOMBARDI (124 lb) ran a cracking race despite being slow out, a bit wide, and held up early in the straight.  In fact, on sectional times and taking into consideration his troubled passage it looks as if he could have given Class 1 sprinters like Tuscan Spirit and Sunny Golf a run for their money.  Dirt specialist Sunny Golf was only 3.25L behind Lucky Nine, albeit in a slowly-run race, and Lombardi seems to have already reached that level.  He also performed similarly to the highly touted Best Win.  They covered the first 800m of their races at virtually the same pace, before Best Win powered home with clear running in 22.48, and Lombardi in 22.65.

Lombardi has of course performed with merit over 1400m and would be even more interesting over that distance.

Of course, the most impressive part about BEST WIN (129 lb)'s run is the last furlong, which he covered in tremendous style.  But the time of that Class 3 race actually has ROMANTIC CITY (119 lb) running below his best, achieved in his previous win last season.  In that win over Hot Shot, Romantic City ran at a very strong Class 2 level.  GOOD WORDS (125 lb)'s win still looks like Class 2 material, but off that performance he's no world beater.

Reasons to be skeptical of Harbinger's King George romp

The recently retired Harbinger trotted up in the 2010 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes by a stunning 11 lengths, breaking the track record by half a second in the process.  This dominant win earned the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt a provisional Timeform rating of 142.  This rating surpasses anything equine legends such as Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars, and Nijinsky have produced.  International handicappers gave him a rating of 135, making him the highest rated horse in the world by a big space, and people began touting him as something very special  indeed.

But even those admirers must surely question the 11 lengths Harbinger held over Cape Blanco, and the 14L gap back to proven G1 performers Youmzain and Daryakana.  Harbinger was far and away the best horse on the day, but the beaten brigade did not run to form, and in a big way.

Let's begin the form analysis by looking at Harbinger's lead up race to the King George.

Harbinger won the G2 Hardwicke Stakes by 3.5L over Duncan, an inconsistent but capable horse himself.  Duncan actually went down by less than a length in last year's Coronation Cup, a weak Group 1 won by Ask, a nose in front of Youmzain.  In the Hardwicke, Duncan powered 6L clear of the third placed horse Barshiba (who did win a fillies & mares G2 next time out), suggesting he may have run to his best form.  This put Harbinger in with a good chance of taking out the King George.

But this leads to the first reason to question the form around Harbinger's 11L romp.
*Harbinger was only eased up the jockey with around 50m to go in both the G2 race and the King George.  In other words, he was more or less pushed to the line by Ryan Moore to achieve the 3.5L margin over Duncan.  Even factoring in the faster pace of the King George and Harbinger's improvement the 11L winning margin sticks out like a sore thumb.  On face value his King George performance seems a massive improvement on all previous known form...

A second point, albeit a weaker one.
*One would like to think that if Harbinger were really that much better than his King George opponents Ryan Moore would have stuck with him.  As it were the jockey opted to ride Workforce (who won the Derby by a similar suspiciously large margin) and the 3 year old was not himself, beating home only the pacemaker.

Now onto the race itself. First of all,
*There were only 6 runners, and fields this small give us reason to question large margins of victory when they are produced. Out of Harbinger's 5 opponents, one was Workforce, who ran a dismal race.  This leaves the pacemaker and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th placed horses.

Cape Blanco ran a clear second after chasing the pacemaker, beating home the 3rd placegetter Youmzain by over 3L. But there is reason to believe that he is a 1m 2f horse, as his best runs have been at that distance.  He did win the 1m 4f Irish Derby, but in labored fashion. I have read that Aidan O'Brien believes he might not have gotten the distance at the Curragh and won with his class (I cannot find this quote however).
*Cape Blanco did not seem to get the trip.  He was under pressure before 3f out and even got a crack with the whip inside 3f.  Meanwhile, the riders of proven stayers Harbinger, Youmzain, and Daryakana were still sitting quietly on their mounts. There are various arguments that can be made to counter this observation: Youmzain and Daryakana were at the back of the field while Cape Blanco chased the pace, this just proves how good Harbinger is, Cape Blanco was trying to pinch a break, etc.  But Cape Blanco's being pushed along considerably earlier than the other horses bar Workforce and the pacemaker, his wayward running in the straight, and his labored effort at the Curragh do not give you confidence that he stays the distance.  Nor the ease with which Cape Blanco set a hot pace in the Irish Champion Stakes.

Youmzain is known to be a consistent sort despite never winning.  That being said his record at Ascot leaves much to be desired, and he is also well known to prefer some cut in the ground.  Here he ran into third place 14L behind Harbinger.
*Youmzain did not run to his form at all.  This may be an extension of his unimpressive record at Ascot, and his cause was probably not helped by the ground, classified as Good. In his three Ascot runs, he has been beaten 20L on Good to Fast ground after stumbling on a turn, 4L by Dylan Thomas on Good to Soft, and 9.5L by Duke of Marmalade on Good to Fast.

There are few obvious excuses that can be made for 2010 Hong Kong Vase winner Daryakana.  But Daryakana surely ran below form, and this can be seen through the performance of Harbinger's pacemaker, Confront.

Confront really puts a question mark over the form.  This 5 year old has always been a hold-up miler, winning at G3 level and running a blinder in the G1 Hong Kong Mile to finish less than 2L from the winner despite a troubled passage.  He won a Class 2 over 9f, but finished beaten 6L or more in three tries at 10f, including one after the King George.  The King George is the only time he has run beyond 10f.
*Confront, who clearly does not get the distance, ran an unusually respectable race.  It took some of the other horses a shocking amount of effort to get past him.  Youmzain and Daryakana ended up beating him by only a bit over 8L, and more disturbingly Daryakana did not overhaul him until the furlong pole.

The final point comes not from form analysis, but just by a simple fact.  Most horse racing enthusiasts have learned to be wary of race times and track records, especially in European racing.
*Harbinger broke the track record by half a second, but the track record was previously held by 3 year old handicappers.  How can that be?  The King George was run around a new course that has only run 12f races 46 times, excluding races with the word Soft in the going description (stat courtesy of Nick Mordin).

All of a sudden, lowering the track record by half a second sounds a lot less impressive.  Harbinger is undoubtedly a smart horse, and the win remains one of the most visually impressive of all time, but there are very real question marks over the race.