On MANDARIN K372

Ever since he first stepped out on Sha Tin's racecourse, John Size's MANDARIN has received plenty of attention.  Owned by the connections of former champion miler Armada, the 4 year old has had players drooling over his marvelous physique and ability.

Their admiration has been justified with 1.75L and 1.25L victories in Class 3 and 4, both more or less on the bridle, after two good runs over the insufficient distance of 1000m.  But splitting his two victories is a disappointing 3rd placing over 1200m, and he ended last season by folding tamely over 1400m as an even-money favorite, beaten 4L.
Just how smart were his victories?  And are there any excuses for his defeats?

In the first of his wins, Mandarin (125 lb) led and set very slow fractions while the very smart 2nd horse Praising (125) missed the start and settled back in the field.  With the race run to suit, Mandarin won by 1.75L. However, Praising pulled almost 3 lengths off him in the straight, and third-placed Goldmen Y Y over a length.  Jockey Douglas Whyte never got serious on Mandarin, but after his subsequent performances there is now a question mark over just how much he had left in the tank.

In his next race, he ran a close 3rd behind Final Answer and Noble Choice.  In that race, Mandarin (133) slotted in from gate 12 and trailed the leaders, one of which was Noble Choice (130).  The winner Final Answer (132) railed on Mandarin's inside.  The pace was very fast and in the end Final Answer powered through on the rail, covering the final 400m in 23.44, while Noble Choice's 23.98 final split was just enough for him to hold off Mandarin and his 23.63s finish.
This was a disappointing run given that Noble Choice is at best a Class 3 horse and there was barely a  weight pull.  Mandarin had to cross from his wide draw but he got there without much fuss.  A comparison to the same day's extremely competitive Class 3, which featured Perfect Sprint, London Chinatown, and Perfect Gear, suggests that Mandarin's performance was barely good enough to make the first 5 of that race.

John Size stepped him up to 1400m next start, and from another wide draw he won with 120 pounds under little urging.  But he only beat fourth-placed Mascot Fortune (118), who pushed the pace outside him, by 1.5L. Mascot Fortune was in the form of his life, but is still a Class 3 horse.  Also,  the other place-getters were poorly drawn hold-up horses who were both over 5L back with 400m to run.

The Hong Kong Jockey Club recently highlighted on their website that in this race Mandarin ran a better time off a faster pace than the Class 2 horses two races later.  But the first three horses who trailed Mandarin in did as well.  The Class 2 race was very weak.  The winner Sparkling Power was a debuting PP who pulled fiercely, and 2nd placed You Gotta Pay shared the lead from a wide draw, was stepping back from 1600m, was at the end of a long season, and was not showing Class 1 form regardless.  As strange as it is to think that Winning Fellowship and Mascot Fortune could have beaten You Gotta Pay, it is not unusual that they (and horses like Sunrise and Lunar Reflections) could have beaten Union's Star, Jun Qi, or a poorly drawn Quick Touch.

Mandarin finished 8th in his final race an hour and a half after Let Me Handle It scored his emphatic victory.  Mandarin (132) set a fast pace from the outside gate and led by 2L on the turn, but was swarmed shortly after the 200m to fade behind the 3 wide no cover winner Penglai Xianzi (127) and Soaring Dragon (123).  There are again few excuses; the pace set in this run is very similar to the tempo he set in his last race.  Furthermore, All Time High (a borderline Class 3 horse) actually went faster in Let Me Handle It's Class 4 race and only ran 0.12s slower than Mandarin.  This run seems too bad to be true...

Mandarin has a high cruising speed but he does not seem to find much off the bridle.  This makes him look better than he actually may be when he wins; assuming that he did not have much in reserve, his first win marks him down as a Class 3 horse, while his second shows him to be a borderline Class 2 horse.  Both of his losses put him up as a bottom-of-Class 3 horse.  I suspect that he had trouble carrying weight last season, and would not bet that he has improved in that regard this season.  Perhaps they need to ride him quiet when he carries a big weight.

But Mandarin's pedigree does suggest that he should eventually improve over at least a mile, and there was visible improvement when he stepped up to 7f.  But I'd be stunned if he could win first up this Saturday and he no certainty for a place, even with the smaller field.