The recently retired Harbinger trotted up in the 2010 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes by a stunning 11 lengths, breaking the track record by half a second in the process. This dominant win earned the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt a provisional Timeform rating of 142. This rating surpasses anything equine legends such as Mill Reef, Dancing Brave, Sea The Stars, and Nijinsky have produced. International handicappers gave him a rating of 135, making him the highest rated horse in the world by a big space, and people began touting him as something very special indeed.
But even those admirers must surely question the 11 lengths Harbinger held over Cape Blanco, and the 14L gap back to proven G1 performers Youmzain and Daryakana. Harbinger was far and away the best horse on the day, but the beaten brigade did not run to form, and in a big way.
Let's begin the form analysis by looking at Harbinger's lead up race to the King George.
Harbinger won the G2 Hardwicke Stakes by 3.5L over Duncan, an inconsistent but capable horse himself. Duncan actually went down by less than a length in last year's Coronation Cup, a weak Group 1 won by Ask, a nose in front of Youmzain. In the Hardwicke, Duncan powered 6L clear of the third placed horse Barshiba (who did win a fillies & mares G2 next time out), suggesting he may have run to his best form. This put Harbinger in with a good chance of taking out the King George.
But this leads to the first reason to question the form around Harbinger's 11L romp.
*Harbinger was only eased up the jockey with around 50m to go in both the G2 race and the King George. In other words, he was more or less pushed to the line by Ryan Moore to achieve the 3.5L margin over Duncan. Even factoring in the faster pace of the King George and Harbinger's improvement the 11L winning margin sticks out like a sore thumb. On face value his King George performance seems a massive improvement on all previous known form...
A second point, albeit a weaker one.
*One would like to think that if Harbinger were really that much better than his King George opponents Ryan Moore would have stuck with him. As it were the jockey opted to ride Workforce (who won the Derby by a similar suspiciously large margin) and the 3 year old was not himself, beating home only the pacemaker.
Now onto the race itself. First of all,
*There were only 6 runners, and fields this small give us reason to question large margins of victory when they are produced. Out of Harbinger's 5 opponents, one was Workforce, who ran a dismal race. This leaves the pacemaker and the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th placed horses.
Cape Blanco ran a clear second after chasing the pacemaker, beating home the 3rd placegetter Youmzain by over 3L. But there is reason to believe that he is a 1m 2f horse, as his best runs have been at that distance. He did win the 1m 4f Irish Derby, but in labored fashion. I have read that Aidan O'Brien believes he might not have gotten the distance at the Curragh and won with his class (I cannot find this quote however).
*Cape Blanco did not seem to get the trip. He was under pressure before 3f out and even got a crack with the whip inside 3f. Meanwhile, the riders of proven stayers Harbinger, Youmzain, and Daryakana were still sitting quietly on their mounts. There are various arguments that can be made to counter this observation: Youmzain and Daryakana were at the back of the field while Cape Blanco chased the pace, this just proves how good Harbinger is, Cape Blanco was trying to pinch a break, etc. But Cape Blanco's being pushed along considerably earlier than the other horses bar Workforce and the pacemaker, his wayward running in the straight, and his labored effort at the Curragh do not give you confidence that he stays the distance. Nor the ease with which Cape Blanco set a hot pace in the Irish Champion Stakes.
Youmzain is known to be a consistent sort despite never winning. That being said his record at Ascot leaves much to be desired, and he is also well known to prefer some cut in the ground. Here he ran into third place 14L behind Harbinger.
*Youmzain did not run to his form at all. This may be an extension of his unimpressive record at Ascot, and his cause was probably not helped by the ground, classified as Good. In his three Ascot runs, he has been beaten 20L on Good to Fast ground after stumbling on a turn, 4L by Dylan Thomas on Good to Soft, and 9.5L by Duke of Marmalade on Good to Fast.
There are few obvious excuses that can be made for 2010 Hong Kong Vase winner Daryakana. But Daryakana surely ran below form, and this can be seen through the performance of Harbinger's pacemaker, Confront.
Confront really puts a question mark over the form. This 5 year old has always been a hold-up miler, winning at G3 level and running a blinder in the G1 Hong Kong Mile to finish less than 2L from the winner despite a troubled passage. He won a Class 2 over 9f, but finished beaten 6L or more in three tries at 10f, including one after the King George. The King George is the only time he has run beyond 10f.
*Confront, who clearly does not get the distance, ran an unusually respectable race. It took some of the other horses a shocking amount of effort to get past him. Youmzain and Daryakana ended up beating him by only a bit over 8L, and more disturbingly Daryakana did not overhaul him until the furlong pole.
The final point comes not from form analysis, but just by a simple fact. Most horse racing enthusiasts have learned to be wary of race times and track records, especially in European racing.
*Harbinger broke the track record by half a second, but the track record was previously held by 3 year old handicappers. How can that be? The King George was run around a new course that has only run 12f races 46 times, excluding races with the word Soft in the going description (stat courtesy of Nick Mordin).
All of a sudden, lowering the track record by half a second sounds a lot less impressive. Harbinger is undoubtedly a smart horse, and the win remains one of the most visually impressive of all time, but there are very real question marks over the race.
No comments:
Post a Comment